Skip to content

Add deterministic and probabilistic policy input guidance - #120

Merged
cdcavell merged 9 commits into
mainfrom
issue_work
Aug 21, 2026
Merged

Add deterministic and probabilistic policy input guidance#120
cdcavell merged 9 commits into
mainfrom
issue_work

Conversation

@cdcavell

Copy link
Copy Markdown
Contributor

Summary

Adds the Milestone 8 tutorial for deterministic and probabilistic inputs in policy evaluation.

This change introduces an advanced governance tutorial that explains how authoritative host facts and probabilistic or model-derived signals can participate in the same policy pipeline without disguising uncertainty as fact or allowing model output to become execution authority.

The tutorial covers:

  • Deterministic host-resolved policy facts.
  • Probabilistic and model-derived signals.
  • Confidence scores, class probabilities, anomaly scores, and risk estimates.
  • The distinction between confidence, probability, and authorization.
  • Calibration and the meaning of probabilistic scores.
  • Authoritative context versus advisory context.
  • Signal provenance, source identity, model identity, and model version.
  • Signal timestamps, validity windows, and freshness.
  • Thresholds as explicit policy rather than objective truth.
  • Threshold versioning and operation-specific thresholds.
  • Regional and tenant-specific threshold policies.
  • Deterministic policy decisions constructed from captured probabilistic observations.
  • Repeatability limits when models or upstream data change.
  • Model drift, data drift, and changed model versions.
  • Combining multiple signals without hidden or unjustified averaging.
  • Unknown, unavailable, stale, and invalid signal states.
  • Explicit fail-open and fail-closed behavior.
  • Human review for uncertain or high-consequence cases.
  • Re-evaluation when probabilistic evidence expires.
  • Preservation of exact observed signals in decision provenance.
  • Threshold-boundary and model-version testing.
  • Separation between model output, policy input, governance decision, scoped authority, and host-owned execution.
  • Cases where a simpler deterministic rule remains the better architecture.

The change also:

  • Adds the tutorial to Governance navigation.
  • Cross-links it from AI Integration navigation.
  • Updates the Governance and AI Integration landing pages.
  • Links the new material from policy-context, risk-based decision, and typed AI proposal guidance.
  • Marks the Milestone 8 Deterministic versus probabilistic policy inputs roadmap item complete under issue [Learning]: Explain deterministic and probabilistic policy inputs #115.

The core architectural boundary remains:

A probabilistic signal may inform policy, but uncertainty should not be disguised as an authoritative fact.

Model-derived evidence can influence a governance decision, while policy interpretation, scoped authority, and protected execution remain explicitly host-controlled.

Closes#115

@cdcavell
cdcavell merged commit 1fd96fb into mainAug 21, 2026
3 checks passed
Sign up for freeto join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment

Labels

None yet

Projects

None yet

Development

Successfully merging this pull request may close these issues.

[Learning]: Explain deterministic and probabilistic policy inputs

1 participant

@cdcavell