GenesisAeon Package 19 — Amazon Rainforest Savannisation as UTAC System
Amazon rainforest → savanna transition modelled as reversed UTAC system.
Key result: Γ_Amazon ≈ 0.116 (low-CREP, fragile regime).
pip install amazon-utacFor development (running tests, linting):
pip install -e ".[dev]"amazon-utac run --scenario current-rate
amazon-utac threshold --deforestation-rate 0.01from genesis_os import GenesisOS
os = GenesisOS()
amazon = os.load_package(19)
results = amazon.run_cycle(duration_years=80)Validated against Lovejoy & Nobre (2019) and Boulton et al. (2022).
With 1 % annual deforestation, tipping threshold crossed in 2038 ± 5 years.
UNEP's "Limiting Overshoot: Navigating Exceedance of 1.5°C and Pathways Towards Return" (UNEP, published 2026-09-02, DOI: 10.59117/20.500.11822/49857) assesses that current policies put the world on track for ~2.6°C warming by 2100, with the 1.5°C Paris threshold expected to be permanently exceeded within the next few years.
Relevance and limits, stated honestly: this package's own threshold
(20–25% deforestation, Lovejoy & Nobre 2019) is a deforestation-fraction
threshold, not a temperature threshold — UNEP's report gives no
Amazon-specific number and does not change DEFORESTATION_THRESHOLD_LOW/ HIGH/MID or GAMMA_AMAZON here. The connection is qualitative: Lovejoy
& Nobre's own work notes that background warming and regional drying
lower the deforestation threshold at which savannisation begins (a
warmer, drier baseline needs less forest loss to tip), so a
higher-than-hoped global warming trajectory is context that makes the
package's threshold band more, not less, relevant going forward — it is
not itself evidence for a specific revised threshold number.
amazon-utac is GenesisAeon Package 19 (P19), in the ecology /
rainforest savannisation domain. It applies the GenesisAeon UTAC
(Universal Threshold Activation Criticality) framework and CREP tensor to
model the Amazon forest–savanna tipping point, contributing the
cross-domain Γ_Amazon ≈ 0.116 data point to the ecosystem-wide CREP
Criticality Spectrum.
Please cite this repository's own DOI above (or CITATION.cff in this
repository), and the GenesisAeon whitepaper DOI further up for the
overarching framework.
Code: MIT • Docs & Data: CC BY 4.0