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amazon-utac

GenesisAeon Package 19 — Amazon Rainforest Savannisation as UTAC System

DOI (GenesisAeon Whitepaper) MIT License CC BY 4.0 Part of genesis-os Package 19

Amazon rainforest → savanna transition modelled as reversed UTAC system.

Key result: Γ_Amazon ≈ 0.116 (low-CREP, fragile regime).

Installation

pip install amazon-utac

For development (running tests, linting):

pip install -e ".[dev]"

Quickstart

amazon-utac run --scenario current-rate
amazon-utac threshold --deforestation-rate 0.01

Integration in genesis-os

from genesis_os import GenesisOS
os = GenesisOS()
amazon = os.load_package(19)
results = amazon.run_cycle(duration_years=80)

Benchmark

Validated against Lovejoy & Nobre (2019) and Boulton et al. (2022).

Falsifiable Prediction

With 1 % annual deforestation, tipping threshold crossed in 2038 ± 5 years.

Scientific Context — Global Trajectory (added 2026-09-02)

UNEP's "Limiting Overshoot: Navigating Exceedance of 1.5°C and Pathways Towards Return" (UNEP, published 2026-09-02, DOI: 10.59117/20.500.11822/49857) assesses that current policies put the world on track for ~2.6°C warming by 2100, with the 1.5°C Paris threshold expected to be permanently exceeded within the next few years.

Relevance and limits, stated honestly: this package's own threshold (20–25% deforestation, Lovejoy & Nobre 2019) is a deforestation-fraction threshold, not a temperature threshold — UNEP's report gives no Amazon-specific number and does not change DEFORESTATION_THRESHOLD_LOW/ HIGH/MID or GAMMA_AMAZON here. The connection is qualitative: Lovejoy & Nobre's own work notes that background warming and regional drying lower the deforestation threshold at which savannisation begins (a warmer, drier baseline needs less forest loss to tip), so a higher-than-hoped global warming trajectory is context that makes the package's threshold band more, not less, relevant going forward — it is not itself evidence for a specific revised threshold number.

Role in the GenesisAeon Ecosystem

amazon-utac is GenesisAeon Package 19 (P19), in the ecology / rainforest savannisation domain. It applies the GenesisAeon UTAC (Universal Threshold Activation Criticality) framework and CREP tensor to model the Amazon forest–savanna tipping point, contributing the cross-domain Γ_Amazon ≈ 0.116 data point to the ecosystem-wide CREP Criticality Spectrum.

Citation

DOI

Please cite this repository's own DOI above (or CITATION.cff in this repository), and the GenesisAeon whitepaper DOI further up for the overarching framework.

License

Code: MIT • Docs & Data: CC BY 4.0

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