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Lesterhau/README.md

Ryan Lester

Economist · Futurist · Applied Researcher · Essayist

B.S. Economics · University of Houston, 2026M.S. Foresight · University of Houston, Fall 202622-year U.S. Navy Veteran · Houston, TX

ORCIDSubstackLinkedInHarvard Dataverse


I work at the intersection of behavioral economics, urban systems, and applied foresight. My research gets peer-reviewed. My code gets deployed. My essays get read by people who then text me things like "damn, that's me."

Three papers on SSRN. One under journal review. Building a hyperlocal social app for Houston and a foresight intelligence tool. Starting an M.S. in Futures Studies in Fall 2026.

"The research question I keep returning to: what happens to human decision-making when systems fail slowly enough that we adapt to them?"


🔬 Research

All papers available on SSRN. Data publicly archived on Harvard Dataverse.

PaperVenueStatusData
Rational Foreclosure: A Stochastic Reference Point Model of Aspirational Abandonment under Positional DriftTheoretical Economics (target)✅ SSRN PostedDOI
The Regime Boundaries of AI-Amplified Research: Task Complementarity, Physical Validation, and the Limits of Semi-Endogenous GrowthJournal of Economic Growth · BUPA submission pending✅ SSRN PostedDOI
Two Sectors, One Airspace: Workload, Complexity, and Safety in Air Traffic ControlJournal of Air Transport Management🔄 Under ReviewDOI

Methods used: Stochastic optimal stopping · Kőszegi-Rabin reference-dependence · BVP reformulation · Semi-endogenous growth theory · Leontief/CES task complementarity · O*NET digital task share proxies · Newey-West HAC regression · Reproducibility-bundled replication code

Key antecedents: Jones (1995) · Bloom et al. (2020) · Acemoglu & Restrepo (2018) · Kőszegi & Rabin (2006) · Vicky Henderson (2012) · Genicot & Ray (2017) · Gans (2025)


🛠 Projects

Things I'm actually building

SwarmMind — AI-Native Foresight Intelligence

Structured scenario planning that doesn't require a PhD to run.

Integrates STEEP classification, Schwartz scenario planning, Three Horizons, Hines HAT axes, CLA, Spiral Dynamics, and Polak Future Image scoring into a single workflow. Built for foresight practitioners, policy analysts, and organizations that plan in years not quarters.

ForesightScenario PlanningSTEEPStrategic Intelligence


AI Education Toolkits — Free Implementation Guides for School Leaders

Because the gap in state AI guidance is real and the deadlines aren't waiting.

Two free frameworks — one for K-12 superintendents and principals, one for university presidents and provosts. No paywall. No consultant required. Of the 34 state AI education documents currently in circulation, zero include a named implementation role with a job description. These do.

AI PolicyK-12Higher EducationImplementation FrameworkOpen Access

View K-12 Toolkit · [View Higher Ed Toolkit](https://lesterhau.github.io/ai-education-toolkits/Before%20You%20Launch%20-%20AI%20in%20Higher%20Education%20HTML.html


Stoop — Hyperlocal Social, Video-First

Neighborhood discovery for people who are tired of being algorithmically sorted into loneliness.

Fandom-level interest matching within proximity bands. No DMs. No groups. No events. Just the 100 people closest to you who care about the same things you do. Starting in Montrose, Houston.

React NativeProximity MatchingFandom InterestsHorizontal ScrollNo-DM Architecture


TokenWater — Track the Water Cost of AI

100ml per 1,000 tokens. Across 20 platforms. Now you know.

Cross-platform AI water consumption tracker. Converts token usage to water cost equivalent. Open source, MIT licensed.

HTMLJavaScriptAI EthicsEnvironmental Accountability


Roam — Waze for Hunting

Crowdsourced field intelligence for hunters who are tired of burning diesel on bad intel.

Parcel boundary overlays, offline mode, ArcGIS satellite tiles, crowdsourced field intel posts. Freemium: Scout (free) → Field Pass ($4.99/mo) → Landowner ($19.99/mo).

Leaflet.jsArcGISRegrid APISupabaseIndexedDBOffline-First


✍️ Writing

Essays at RLPerspectives.com — Confessional before analytical. Structurally chaotic in the way that things that are actually true tend to be.


🧰 Methods & Tools

PythonRJavaScriptHTML5LeafletSupabase

Research: Stata · R (lmtest, sandwich, survival) · Python (pandas, numpy, scipy) · Harvard Dataverse · SSRN

Foresight: Schwartz Scenario Planning · CLA · Three Horizons · Hines HAT · Polak Future Image

Writing: Substack · ORCID-linked publications · Open data archiving


📍 Background

22 years as a U.S. Navy Senior Chief — operations management, leadership, and systems-level problem solving at scale. Veteran-owned business (RL Perspectives, LLC). Population health minor, because economic models that ignore bodies are incomplete. Everest Base Camp, 2024. Houstonian by choice.


Currently accepting: research collaborations, policy consulting, and conversations that don't start with "let's circle back."

rslester@cougarnet.uh.edu · RLPerspectives.com

Pinned Loading

  1. rational-foreclosurerational-foreclosurePublic

    Stochastic reference point model of aspirational abandonment under positional drift — behavioral economics working paper

    Python 1

  2. regime-boundariesregime-boundariesPublic

    Task complementarity, physical validation, and the limits of semi-endogenous growth under AI amplification — working paper

    R 1

  3. stoopstoopPublic

    Hyperlocal video-first social app — fandom-level interest matching within your closest 100 neighbors. Starting in Montrose, Houston.

    1

  4. swarmindswarmindPublic

    AI-native foresight intelligence platform integrating Schwartz scenario planning, CLA, Three Horizons, STEEP, and swarm dynamics

    1

  5. tokenwatertokenwaterPublic

    Track the water cost of your AI token usage across 20 platforms

    HTML 1

  6. two-sectors-one-airspacetwo-sectors-one-airspacePublic

    Workload, complexity, and safety in air traffic control — under review at Journal of Air Transport Management

    R 1