Build and read back an exact-main Polymarket baseline snapshot in cloud

[proerror77]

Parent

#225

Change contract

Using an exact-main research image containing merged PR #228, select one existing verified BTC 5-minute Polymarket evidence cohort, build one Polymarket plus Chainlink baseline ResearchSnapshot in cloud, publish it immutably, and read it back by both archive and snapshot contract digests.

Acceptance evidence

• The job records exact main git SHA, image digest, evidence content SHA, evidence manifest SHA, command, UTC window, and market IDs.
• The selected cohort contains complete market_id episodes with both independent Up and Down books, event-local Chainlink opening evidence, and official settlement.
• No Binance segment is supplied or inferred.
• The manifest records the baseline source kind, intentional Binance omission, and unavailable continuous or CEX-derived fields.
• The sealed snapshot has nonempty observations and token books.
• Snapshot archive SHA and snapshot contract hash both verify after a fresh cloud readback.
• A failed attempt writes no mutable replacement over a prior successful object.

Out of scope

Evaluator or MCTS execution; result publication; collector deployment; Binance backfill; research-logic changes; Paper or Live.

Dependency and merge order

Depends on merged PR #228. It does not depend on #227 because this issue only constructs and verifies the snapshot.

Focused validation

Use the existing cloud snapshot entrypoint and immutable OSS publication path. Capture the exact command, job status, manifest, and digest readback as issue evidence.

Rollout and rollback impact

One-shot research artifact production with one named cloud controller. Rollback deletes no evidence; a superseding attempt uses a new immutable object identity.

[proerror77]

Runtime controller claim: this Codex thread /root is the sole controller for the ACK mutation in #232. Pre-mutation readback: cluster monday-research-apne1 (c4d1db514b47a4c40995d2ec4bcc8c0ca), namespace monday-research, current main e049d585944728da83db04039b40348dbf882683, zero active Jobs, and research pool monday-research-spot (npa509e34c913c45a59a33b805a66267e5) at 0 nodes. Authorized scope is only: scale that existing 4C16G spot pool by one node, run one baseline Snapshot Job and a separate digest readback Job using the exact-main immutable research image, then report and release capacity. No collector, ECS, NAT/EIP, new PVC, evaluator/MCTS, Paper, or Live mutation belongs to #232.

[proerror77]

Capacity action under the existing /root controller: re-scaled the already-declared monday-research-spot pool (npa509e34c913c45a59a33b805a66267e5) from 0 to 1 node while exact-main image 34e51931ad86aa83c3a7798d4ac2ff25da90b0da publishes. ACK task T-6a61f0d623a759010200004a, request 019F8E94-C49A-2B0C-8257-053578014187. No new network, PVC, collector, or deployment resource was created.

[proerror77]

Exact-main snapshot attempt snapshot-issue232-main-0723a used source 34e51931ad86aa83c3a7798d4ac2ff25da90b0da, image digest sha256:14ed72ab74f78d663beec3e235cfad681fab06ab4e51a0a665e24bcf30f365c9, the two anchored #173 Polymarket evidence triplets, and no Binance segment. It failed closed before publication with: every verified 5-minute slot must contain BTCUSDT and SOLUSDT. The attempt wrote only the distinct snapshot-issue232-attempt-a failure path; snapshot-issue232 success/control paths were not created. This is now a focused verifier-scope defect: a BTC-only research request is being rejected by a two-product collector completeness invariant. No evidence will be fabricated or widened with SOL.

[proerror77]

The failed snapshot attempt is complete and no research Pod is pending. To avoid idle cost during the focused verifier repair, the manually scaled monday-research-spot pool is being returned to 0; GOATScaler may separately release its now-idle provisioned node. No evidence or PVC is deleted.

[proerror77]

PR #269 merged as 7b0c35df8ff8e99acddce69e55f97975afb32eb8 after focused TDD, Matt reviews, and green CI. Exact-main ACR publish run 30003441477 is now building the research image; research spot capacity remains at 0 and no retry Job has been created yet. Once the immutable image digest is available, this controller will create only snapshot-issue232-main-0723b with the same two anchored BTC evidence members, no Binance, and a distinct snapshot-issue232-attempt-b failure path.

[proerror77]

Exact-main retry snapshot-issue232-main-0723b used source 7b0c35df8ff8e99acddce69e55f97975afb32eb8, image sha256:afda692dc15730c6d46540e134e53532b08802ec8cac81f3086ef29a0a2a7c68, the same two anchored #173 evidence members, and no Binance. It advanced past the fixed requested-symbol aggregate, then failed closed in snapshot construction: verified artifact snapshot has no available factor observation for contract 2985854. Only the distinct snapshot-issue232-attempt-b failure path was written; no success/control publication was created. The next action is a focused availability diagnosis for that exact market, not another retry or evidence mutation.

[proerror77]

Exact-main attempt snapshot-issue232-main-0724b used source 7cfae3a, research image sha256:811b06f81671799430d08ad4b23d752609107ad7490c264c2ac0d6ef9562ebbe, evidence content 0956d844468f38b57261d823994fe46a53aa6a1748d81904512feea967ac24aa, manifest d069c8494448e33763bf0105da0054c5676a3e981a687d5f976112d28671b5c5, market 3032949, UTC 17:40-17:45, and no Binance inputs. It advanced past #297, then failed closed before publication with orderbook top of book disagrees with full depth. Only the unique snapshot-issue232-main-0724b-attempt path was written. Read-only job snapshot-issue232-book-diagnose-0724a found 70 absolute-depth mismatches; pinned-image proof snapshot-issue232-book-tradeable-proof-0724b checked all 532 book rows, retained 2,128 non-executable boundary levels, and found zero mismatches under the collector contract 0.02 < price < 0.98. The focused verifier drift is #302. No retry will occur until #302 merges and an exact-main research image is published.

[proerror77]

Exact-main retry snapshot-issue232-main-0724c used source be6858377e102502cd98452df0af2d20f3561e01, research image sha256:cae3b88f779cf9df994972150fc613360a91afb0d2088e6ef170580957daf52d, and the unchanged evidence anchors (0956d844...24aa / d069c849...b5c5). It advanced beyond the completion timestamp and executable top/depth gates, then failed closed at the next predicate: verified artifact snapshot has no available factor observation for contract 3032949.

Read-only ACK diagnostics established the next root cause without changing evidence:

• snapshot-issue232-factor-availability-0724e: 1 contract, 532 L2, 287 Chainlink references, 6,050 trades; contract available at 17:40:30.491Z, first L2 at 17:40:31.255Z.
• Research projection retained only the one pre-open reference (source_time < event_start) even though the immutable manifest declares [event_start-30s,event_end) reference coverage.
• snapshot-issue232-factor-replay-0724f: retaining causally valid in-event references makes all 27 sampled 10-second buckets available.

Focused follow-up is #304. Collector, evidence bytes/digests, snapshot cadence, evaluator, and MCTS remain unchanged. The next snapshot retry will wait for #304 merge plus a new exact-main image and will use a unique output path.

[proerror77]

Cloud snapshot acceptance complete.

Producer:

• Job: snapshot-issue232-main-0724g
• exact main: 3f28a39
• image: sha256:a7b3fee3133f5fa23c1f28832a4463f119079365a8d94a3566fe5bdf1e99f319
• evidence content: 0956d844468f38b57261d823994fe46a53aa6a1748d81904512feea967ac24aa
• evidence manifest: d069c8494448e33763bf0105da0054c5676a3e981a687d5f976112d28671b5c5
• UTC window: [2026-07-23T17:40:00Z, 2026-07-23T17:45:00Z)
• market: 3032949
• source: verified_polymarket_chainlink_baseline
• Binance segments: 0
• observations: 26
• Polymarket token-book snapshots: 480
• snapshot hash: 9ebc8c88b9753f20
• snapshot contract: sha256:3fc45110173a8b45407e81390d5ae38085287d7b8fc2fef5fd948c30d87da597
• bundle SHA: bc7ee67ce10265b8886defe5e16514ff7487352a825abb8267d5637b8d92680d
• provenance SHA: a5145cae23b473e602df8d2345a03617c8776cf4bc34aece09b0681949b8f204
• report SHA: 265149ea5ff299b6128b3eaa797022b67ce0de61696711f1db5ecdfbddc01b97

Fresh readback:

• Job: snapshot-issue232-readback-0724h
• PVC mounted read-only
• Job succeeded and recomputed bundle, _SUCCESS, provenance, report, compiler stdout/stderr digests
• It also checked exact source/image/evidence identity, market ID, row counts, snapshot hashes, source kind, and live_execution=disabled.

Each failed predecessor wrote only its unique attempt path. This successful artifact used a new content-addressed path and did not overwrite any prior success. Evaluator/MCTS remains separate in #233.