fix(collector): exclude noncausal Polymarket research trades

[proerror77]

Change contract: Normalized Polymarket research evidence omits a canonical trade whenever either received_at or the envelope recorded_at precedes trade_ts, while malformed clocks and zero-causal-trade event coverage still fail closed.

Out of scope: Fixing the raw collector stamping source, relaxing the semantic verifier, changing ECS/reference-recovery, deployment, or republishing immutable evidence.

Dependency or merge order: Depends only on main. Merge before republishing the real Linux evidence artifact; the raw collector clock-source fix remains a separate focused PR.

Focused validation: TDD counterexamples cover each noncausal clock independently, malformed recorded_at despite a noncausal received_at, and an event whose only trade is noncausal. cargo test -p hft-collector --lib: 153 passed, 2 ignored. cargo clippy -p hft-collector --lib -- -D warnings, cargo fmt --check -p hft-collector, and git diff --check pass. Real Linux raw replay changed 24,121 rows to 23,233 by omitting exactly 888 noncausal trades while retaining 4 events and 2,180 books; new deterministic content SHA-256 is c1f46cc6bc464d771a20dcda0dae6be3b363480b61bc62ca48cc6e3937d72382.

Rollout/rollback impact: New evidence publications become stricter; existing immutable artifacts are unchanged. Roll back by reverting this PR and do not publish the resulting weaker artifact. The downstream verifier remains unchanged and fail closed.

Summary by CodeRabbit

• Bug Fixes
  • Prevented trade evidence from being published when timestamps indicate it was received or recorded before the trade occurred.
  • Improved availability timing to reflect the latest relevant timestamp.
  • Added validation so malformed recording timestamps are rejected consistently.
  • Updated completeness handling when noncausal trade data is encountered.

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ℹ️ Recent review info

⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: defaults

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Pro

Run ID: 69e9aa61-fb84-4ac7-96ab-2ba86d2ddd95

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between a9e02b6 and 70eea69.

📒 Files selected for processing (1)

• rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_research_normalize.rs

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📝 Walkthrough

Walkthrough

Polymarket trade normalization now parses source, received, and recorded timestamps, excludes noncausal trades, and computes evidence availability from received and recorded times. Tests add pending-trade construction and validate filtering, completeness, and malformed timestamp behavior.

Changes

Polymarket timestamp causality

Layer / File(s)	Summary
Timestamp gating and evidence emission rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_research_normalize.rs	trade_rows parses relevant timestamps, skips trades where received or recorded time predates the source trade, and emits available_at from the latest valid timestamp.
Timestamp behavior validation rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_research_normalize.rs	Tests add a Pending trade helper and cover noncausal filtering, surface incompleteness, and malformed recorded_at errors.

Estimated code review effort: 3 (Moderate) | ~20 minutes

Sequence Diagram(s)

sequenceDiagram
  participant PendingTrade
  participant trade_rows
  participant TimestampClocks
  participant EvidenceRow
  PendingTrade->>trade_rows: provide trade_ts, received_at, recorded_at
  trade_rows->>TimestampClocks: parse timestamp values
  TimestampClocks-->>trade_rows: return clocks
  trade_rows->>EvidenceRow: emit causal trade with latest availability timestamp

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🚥 Pre-merge checks | ✅ 5

✅ Passed checks (5 passed)

Check name	Status	Explanation
Title check	✅ Passed	The title clearly and concisely summarizes the main change: excluding noncausal Polymarket research trades.
Description check	✅ Passed	The description covers the required template topics with clear contract, out-of-scope, dependencies, validation, and rollback details.
Docstring Coverage	✅ Passed	No functions found in the changed files to evaluate docstring coverage. Skipping docstring coverage check.
Linked Issues check	✅ Passed	Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.
Out of Scope Changes check	✅ Passed	Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.

✨ Finishing Touches

📝 Generate docstrings

• Create stacked PR
• Commit on current branch

🧪 Generate unit tests (beta)

• Create PR with unit tests
• Commit unit tests in branch codex/polymarket-drop-noncausal-trades

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