feat(research): defer unresolved factor outcomes

[proerror77]

Change contract

Add a crate-private unlabeled factor builder so verified-artifact snapshot code can emit unresolved rows without changing the public labeled builder behavior.

Out of scope

• Snapshot adapter wiring
• CLI / cloud E2E
• Any public API expansion beyond crate-private helper exposure

Dependency or merge order

• Base: main
• Merge before the verified snapshot adapter refresh that consumes this helper

Focused validation

• Added a focused unit test proving the public sampled builder still drops unresolved events while the crate-private unlabeled path emits one row with settlement_up = NaN and no official resolution timestamp.
• Preserved resolved false/true settlement mapping in the existing public path.
• No local Cargo build/run; GitHub CI is the validation lane for this PR.

Rollout / rollback impact

Low. This is a research-only internal seam. Rollback is a straight revert of this PR if the downstream adapter does not need the unlabeled path.

Summary by CodeRabbit

• New Features

  • Added support for generating factor observations before event outcomes are resolved.
  • Unresolved observations now retain their data and indicate an unavailable settlement result.

• Bug Fixes

  • Preserved existing behavior for resolved, labeled observations while correctly handling missing outcomes.

• Configuration

  • Updated search policy snapshots for Bitcoin and Solana five-minute research missions.

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Review details

⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: defaults

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Pro

Run ID: e9f3dbcd-3aa7-404e-9a7a-0ed47ff99740

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between 69aed95 and 4dd4ebd.

📒 Files selected for processing (3)

• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-btc-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-sol-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/src/factors.rs

📝 Walkthrough

Walkthrough

Mission configs pin new search policy snapshots. Factor observation construction now offers labeled and unlabeled modes, retaining unresolved observations with NaN settlement values and validating later resolved outcomes.

Changes

Factor Observation Updates

Layer / File(s)	Summary
Mission policy snapshot updates rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/*.example.json	BTC and SOL five-minute mission examples use new search_policy_snapshot_id hashes.
Unresolved factor builder behavior rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/src/factors.rs	The shared factor builder optionally retains unresolved events, maps missing settlements to NaN, and tests labeled and unlabeled results before and after resolution.

Estimated code review effort: 3 (Moderate) | ~20 minutes

Possibly related PRs

• proerror77/monday#76: Updates the same Polymarket BTC/SOL mission policy snapshot IDs.

🚥 Pre-merge checks | ✅ 5

✅ Passed checks (5 passed)

Check name	Status	Explanation
Title check	✅ Passed	The title clearly matches the main change: deferring unresolved factor outcomes in research.
Description check	✅ Passed	The description covers the contract, scope, dependency order, validation, and rollback; only the scope-exception section is omitted.
Docstring Coverage	✅ Passed	No functions found in the changed files to evaluate docstring coverage. Skipping docstring coverage check.
Linked Issues check	✅ Passed	Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.
Out of Scope Changes check	✅ Passed	Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.

✨ Finishing Touches

🧪 Generate unit tests (beta)

• Create PR with unit tests
• Commit unit tests in branch codex/prediction-deferred-factor-outcome

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