fix(polymarket): bind evidence to explicit episodes

[proerror77]

Change contract

Require every published Polymarket evidence artifact to name its exact non-empty market-ID episode set, and fail closed unless producer selection, v3 manifest, sealed rows, typed verification, and the checked-in Polymarket mission policy pins agree.

Acceptance evidence

• cargo test --manifest-path rust_hft/prediction-markets/Cargo.toml -p ploy-market-data — 45 passed.
• cargo test --manifest-path rust_hft/tools/collector/Cargo.toml — 185 passed, 2 existing ignored.
• Targeted v3 tests prove seal -> verify_polymarket_evidence retains both independent Up/Down token books and rejects an order-book row for an unrequested market.
• Existing governed-policy test proves both BTC/SOL mission templates pin the current policy fingerprint after the verifier change.
• git diff --check passes. Linux-only publication tests remain for GitHub CI.

Out of scope

No Binance LOB behavior, collector deployment/cutover, cloud mutation, data publication, snapshot construction/evaluator/MCTS, or execution policy behavior change.

Dependency / merge order

Base: main. Implements issue #182 under PRD issue #181, and unblocks the separate #173 evidence-compile rerun after merge and image publication.

Rollout / rollback impact

No runtime rollout. New compiler outputs use manifest v3 and require explicit --market-id; the verifier retains v2 compatibility for already-published artifacts. Rollback is a source/image rollback with no data overwrite.

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Review details

⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: defaults

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Pro

Run ID: d4875c91-86b3-4bc2-939f-d9d534de28db

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between 43f4d47 and e3937ae.

📒 Files selected for processing (8)

• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-btc-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-sol-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-market-data/src/polymarket_evidence/artifact.rs
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-market-data/src/polymarket_evidence/verified.rs
• rust_hft/tools/collector/src/bin/polymarket-raw-ops.rs
• rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_evidence_artifact.rs
• rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_research_normalize.rs
• rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_research_select.rs

📝 Walkthrough

Walkthrough

Polymarket evidence selection now requires explicit market IDs. Discovery, normalization, publication, manifest sealing, and verification propagate and enforce those IDs through updated v2/v3 schemas, dynamic symbol lists, and fail-closed validation.

Changes

Explicit market selection and evidence binding

Layer / File(s)	Summary
CLI-driven market selection rust_hft/tools/collector/src/bin/polymarket-raw-ops.rs, rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_research_select.rs	The publish command requires --market-id; research selection validates requested IDs, filters discovery results, and verifies that every requested market was found.
Dynamic normalized evidence and publication rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_research_normalize.rs, rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_evidence_artifact.rs	Normalized reports use v2 schemas with dynamic market IDs and symbols; published manifests use v3 and the NDJSON filename uses the new evidence prefix.
V3 manifest and row enforcement rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-market-data/src/polymarket_evidence/artifact.rs	Manifest validation supports legacy v2 and explicit v3 contracts, validates selection invariants, and requires evidence rows to match the manifest’s selected markets and symbols.
V3 verification coverage rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-market-data/src/polymarket_evidence/verified.rs	Tests cover successful v3 verification and rejection of rows belonging to an unrequested market.

Estimated code review effort: 4 (Complex) | ~60 minutes

Possibly related issues

• PRD: make Polymarket evidence artifacts episode-local #181 — Implements episode-local Polymarket artifacts bound to explicit market IDs through v3 manifests.
• Publish and verify explicit Polymarket 5m market-id evidence #182 — Covers explicit market-ID publication, filtering, manifest binding, CLI enforcement, and fail-closed verification.

Possibly related PRs

• proerror77/monday#98 — Introduced the immutable Polymarket evidence artifact publisher and CLI extended here for v3 selection.
• proerror77/monday#96 — Introduced normalization types and logic extended here with v2 reports and explicit selection.
• proerror77/monday#152 — Modified the evidence sealing and validation path extended here with explicit market-ID enforcement.

Sequence Diagram(s)

sequenceDiagram
  participant CLI as PublishPolymarketEvidence
  participant Selection as ResearchSelection
  participant Normalizer as normalize_raw
  participant Publisher as publish_normalized
  participant Verifier as verify_polymarket_evidence
  CLI->>Selection: provide market_ids
  Selection->>Selection: validate and filter requested markets
  Selection-->>Normalizer: return selected contracts
  Normalizer->>Normalizer: derive market_ids and symbols
  Normalizer-->>Publisher: provide normalized_evidence.v2
  Publisher->>Publisher: emit evidence_artifact.v3 manifest
  Publisher-->>Verifier: provide manifest and evidence triplet
  Verifier->>Verifier: enforce explicit market selection
  Verifier-->>CLI: accept or reject evidence

Loading

🚥 Pre-merge checks | ✅ 4 | ❌ 1

❌ Failed checks (1 warning)

Check name	Status	Explanation	Resolution
Docstring Coverage	⚠️ Warning	Docstring coverage is 56.25% which is insufficient. The required threshold is 80.00%.	Write docstrings for the functions missing them to satisfy the coverage threshold.

✅ Passed checks (4 passed)

Check name	Status	Explanation
Linked Issues check	✅ Passed	Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.
Out of Scope Changes check	✅ Passed	Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.
Title check	✅ Passed	The title is concise and accurately summarizes the main change: binding Polymarket evidence to explicit episodes.
Description check	✅ Passed	The description covers the required contract, validation, dependencies, rollout, and tests, with only the scope-exception section missing.

✨ Finishing Touches

🧪 Generate unit tests (beta)

• Create PR with unit tests
• Commit unit tests in branch codex/polymarket-explicit-episode-evidence

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🧹 Nitpick comments (1)

rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_evidence_artifact.rs (1)

148-152: 📐 Maintainability & Code Quality | 🔵 Trivial | ⚡ Quick win

Hardcoded symbol allow-list duplicates the existing SYMBOLS constant in the same crate.

["BTCUSDT", "SOLUSDT"] is inlined here, but polymarket_research_select.rs (same crate, rust_hft/tools/collector) already defines/uses a SYMBOLS constant for the identical allow-list. If the supported symbol set is ever extended, this literal could silently drift from the canonical list and either wrongly reject valid evidence or (if under-restricted) accept an unintended symbol.

♻️ Suggested fix: reuse the shared constant

-        || report
-            .symbols
-            .iter()
-            .any(|symbol| !["BTCUSDT", "SOLUSDT"].contains(&symbol.as_str()))
+        || report
+            .symbols
+            .iter()
+            .any(|symbol| !crate::polymarket_research_select::SYMBOLS.contains(&symbol.as_str()))

#!/bin/bash
# Confirm SYMBOLS visibility in polymarket_research_select.rs to validate reuse is feasible
rg -n 'const SYMBOLS' rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_research_select.rs

🤖 Prompt for AI Agents

Verify each finding against current code. Fix only still-valid issues, skip the
rest with a brief reason, keep changes minimal, and validate.

In `@rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_evidence_artifact.rs` around lines
148 - 152, Replace the inline symbol allow-list in the report validation
condition with the existing shared SYMBOLS constant from
polymarket_research_select, preserving the current empty-symbol and
unsupported-symbol checks. Ensure the constant is accessible from
polymarket_evidence_artifact and use it as the sole source of supported symbols.

🤖 Prompt for all review comments with AI agents

Verify each finding against current code. Fix only still-valid issues, skip the
rest with a brief reason, keep changes minimal, and validate.

Nitpick comments:
In `@rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_evidence_artifact.rs`:
- Around line 148-152: Replace the inline symbol allow-list in the report
validation condition with the existing shared SYMBOLS constant from
polymarket_research_select, preserving the current empty-symbol and
unsupported-symbol checks. Ensure the constant is accessible from
polymarket_evidence_artifact and use it as the sole source of supported symbols.

---

ℹ️ Review info

⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: defaults

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Pro

Run ID: d4b4a7fe-8770-45a9-b1be-6885202728e6

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between d47527a and 43f4d47.

📒 Files selected for processing (6)

• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-market-data/src/polymarket_evidence/artifact.rs
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-market-data/src/polymarket_evidence/verified.rs
• rust_hft/tools/collector/src/bin/polymarket-raw-ops.rs
• rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_evidence_artifact.rs
• rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_research_normalize.rs
• rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_research_select.rs