fix(polymarket): admit explicit failure disclosure

[proerror77]

Change contract

Allow only explicit-market monday.polymarket.evidence_artifact.v3 manifests with V2 validated inputs to disclose quote_collection_failure in the authenticated market event-type counts. Legacy V1 and non-explicit V2 inputs remain fail-closed.

Out of scope

Recovery/completeness inference, importer/compiler recovery policy (#283), collector/WebSocket behavior, evidence schema changes, snapshot/evaluator/MCTS logic, acquisition, deployment, and execution.

Dependency or merge order

This verifier-only prerequisite merges before #283. Rebase #283 onto main after this PR merges.

Focused validation

• cargo +1.91 test --locked -p ploy-market-data only_explicit_v3_inputs_may_disclose_quote_collection_failures -- --nocapture
• cargo +1.91 test --locked -p ploy-market-data
• cargo +1.91 clippy --locked -p ploy-market-data --all-targets --no-deps -- -D warnings
• cargo +1.91 fmt -p ploy-market-data -- --check
• git diff --check

The targeted test proves explicit V3 acceptance, legacy V1 rejection, non-explicit V2 rejection, and explicit V3 rejection of an unknown market event type. Full package result: 56 passed, 0 failed.

A separate PRD is unnecessary because #284 defines one small verifier behavior and its fail-closed counterexamples; implementation followed the focused TDD path.

Rollout or rollback impact

Verifier recognition only; no deployment or artifact mutation. Reverting this PR restores rejection of evidence whose input identity discloses quote collection failures.

Closes #284

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📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between b0050e0 and 3f301a8.

📒 Files selected for processing (3)

• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-btc-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-sol-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-market-data/src/polymarket_evidence/artifact.rs

✨ Finishing Touches

🧪 Generate unit tests (beta)

• Create PR with unit tests
• Commit unit tests in branch codex/polymarket-sealer-failure-disclosure-284

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[proerror77]

CI follow-up: the first run failed only the fail-closed checked-in policy-pin test because artifact.rs is an input to prediction_policy_sources(). I refreshed the BTC and SOL example mission search_policy_snapshot_id values to the computed sha256:830987ac67746600bc2fb3b39fdab6442dfdc9a3b3cd43192f780a6e92cfce84. This is mechanical provenance required by the verifier change, not new research behavior.

Focused reproduction now passes:

cargo +1.91 test --locked -p ploy-research checked_in_btc_and_sol_templates_pin_current_brief_and_rust_policy --lib -- --nocapture