feat(research): add 15s full-depth repricing horizon

[proerror77]

Closes #231

Change contract

Add a side-bound, causal 15-second full-depth token repricing horizon: labels, fillability, slippage/PnL reporting, AutoFactor/MCTS registration, reprice-pilot output, and immutable policy/template identity.

Acceptance evidence

• 15s labels use the first same-side future observation at or after the causal boundary.
• Wrong-token, stale-book, and insufficient future-depth cases fail closed; unavailable depth remains unavailable PnL.
• Both Up and Down sides publish 15s full-depth event/matrix fields and side-bound search artifacts.
• Full-depth execution artifact schema is explicitly v2; existing 5/10/30 fields remain intact.

Out of scope

Collector/runtime rollout (#326), settlement prediction, new market durations, Paper/Shadow/Live execution, and promotion.

Dependency and merge order

Depends on #230 (merged side-bound Mission v3 execution contract). Independently mergeable after current main.

Focused validation

• cargo test -p ploy-research --lib (326 passed)
• cargo check -p ploy-research --features db --bin monday-prediction-evaluator
• cargo test -p ploy-research --features db --example persist_research_trace alpha_zoo_export_requires_side_only_for_repricing_targets -- --nocapture
• cargo clippy -p ploy-research --lib --no-deps -- -D warnings
• cargo fmt --check and git diff --check
• Two independent code reviews: PASS after follow-up fixes.

Rollout and rollback impact

Research-only additive horizon. Rollback is reverting this PR, restoring the prior v1 full-depth artifact and leaving existing 5/10/30-second targets unchanged.

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Review details

⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: defaults

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Pro Plus

Run ID: abc22542-aa8b-40c6-87f2-2d0091025c6e

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between 3e20732 and 24d4e89.

📒 Files selected for processing (8)

• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/autofactor_accounting_catalog.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-btc-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-sol-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/examples/persist_research_trace.rs
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/src/alpha_search.rs
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/src/autofactor.rs
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/src/bin/monday-prediction-evaluator.rs
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/src/factors_v2.rs

✨ Finishing Touches

🧪 Generate unit tests (beta)

• Create PR with unit tests
• Commit unit tests in branch codex/reprice-horizon-15s-231

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[chatgpt-codex-connector]

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