fix(research): fail closed snapshot admission

[proerror77]

Change contract: close the outstanding #374 admission follow-up P1/P2 boundaries by admitting only baseline pipeline-smoke Mission V3 requests against baseline-authority snapshots, and by reaping a spawned sibling when its admission deadline is exhausted.

Acceptance evidence:

• cargo test --features db --bin monday-prediction-snapshot -- --nocapture (13 passed)
• cargo test --lib -- --nocapture (327 passed)
• cargo test --bin alpha-harness -- --nocapture (111 passed)
• cargo fmt --check in both affected workspaces and git diff --check
• Two-axis code review: standards pass; spec complete for the P1/P2 feedback.

Out of scope: Mission V3 research-trial execution adapters and shared MCTS kernel (#324); V3 research admission remains fail-closed until that separate contract exists.

Dependency / merge order: follow-up to merged #374; merge before promoting #324. The two mission templates update atomically because the new authenticated snapshot source binding changes the policy fingerprint.

Rollout / rollback: no collector or live execution changes. Roll back this PR to restore the previous admission surface; this PR only narrows admission and updates the corresponding immutable policy identity.

Summary by CodeRabbit

• Bug Fixes

  • Improved admission timeout handling to reliably terminate and clean up pending snapshot processes.
  • Tightened snapshot validation to accept only supported sources, run modes, and authority configurations.
  • Preserved snapshot source information through authentication and cache reuse.

• Configuration

  • Updated the search policy references for Polymarket BTC and SOL five-minute research missions.

[coderabbitai]

No actionable comments were generated in the recent review. 🎉

ℹ️ Recent review info

⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: defaults

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Pro Plus

Run ID: b5ff32b2-a609-4475-8dbc-35a55e0e0da3

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between 4c8b2c9 and e2e6f63.

📒 Files selected for processing (5)

• rust_hft/alpha-harness/app/src/prediction_dispatch.rs
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-btc-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-sol-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/src/bin/monday-prediction-snapshot.rs
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/src/research_snapshot.rs

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📝 Walkthrough

Walkthrough

The PR adds sibling-process cleanup when admission deadlines are exhausted, threads snapshot source identity through authenticated snapshot handling, and restricts mission admission to the Polymarket Chainlink baseline authority and pipeline smoke mode. Two research mission policy snapshot hashes are updated.

Changes

Admission deadline cleanup

Layer / File(s)	Summary
Deadline exhaustion reaping rust_hft/alpha-harness/app/src/prediction_dispatch.rs	Admission timeout calculations now terminate and reap the sibling process when the deadline is exhausted, with Unix test coverage.

Snapshot authority admission

Layer / File(s)	Summary
Snapshot source identity pipeline rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/src/research_snapshot.rs, rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/*	Authenticated snapshots retain source_kind, baseline manifests use one data requirement, cache tests verify the source, and mission policy snapshot IDs are updated.
Authority-gated mission admission rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/src/bin/monday-prediction-snapshot.rs	Admission now requires the Polymarket Chainlink baseline authority, exact capabilities, and PipelineSmoke mode, with rejection and unit-test coverage.

Estimated code review effort: 3 (Moderate) | ~25 minutes

Possibly related issues

• Gate Prediction Mission dispatch on authenticated snapshot admission #334 — Extends the same snapshot-admission sibling-process flow with deadline-exhaustion cleanup.

Possibly related PRs

• proerror77/monday#374 — Overlaps the admission deadline and remaining-time handling in prediction_dispatch.rs.
• proerror77/monday#228 — Introduces the Polymarket Chainlink baseline snapshot mode used by the new authority gates.
• proerror77/monday#363 — Provides the authenticated snapshot pipeline extended with source_kind.

🚥 Pre-merge checks | ✅ 5

✅ Passed checks (5 passed)

Check name	Status	Explanation
Title check	✅ Passed	The title clearly matches the main change: failing closed on snapshot admission.
Description check	✅ Passed	The description covers the required contract, out-of-scope work, merge order, validation, and rollback.
Docstring Coverage	✅ Passed	No functions found in the changed files to evaluate docstring coverage. Skipping docstring coverage check.
Linked Issues check	✅ Passed	Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.
Out of Scope Changes check	✅ Passed	Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.

✨ Finishing Touches

📝 Generate docstrings

• Create stacked PR
• Commit on current branch

🧪 Generate unit tests (beta)

• Create PR with unit tests
• Commit unit tests in branch codex/snapshot-admission-followups-374

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