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mase

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Pharma demand forecasting with an honest rolling-origin backtest: SARIMA and ETS vs a seasonal-naive baseline across 20 synthetic SKUs. Per-SKU champion selection on validation folds, untouched holdout reporting (27.5% MASE gain; baseline wins 4 SKUs), and service-level cost framing. Deterministic, seeded, fully reproducible.

  • Updated Aug 11, 2026
  • Python

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