Compile a multi-event causally available BTC 5m Polymarket evidence cohort

[proerror77]

Parent

#314

What to build

From one already-closed canonical Rust collector hour, select a bounded set of independent BTCUSDT five-minute Polymarket episodes and publish one immutable event-local evidence cohort that is large enough for strict event-disjoint training and held-out evaluation. Every episode keeps its own Up and Down token books while sharing only its causally projected Chainlink path, and a fresh cloud readback verifies the published triplet.

Acceptance criteria

• Bind the exact market and reference source triplets, compiler source and image digest, UTC selection window, and explicit selected market IDs.
• Publish at least three complete BTCUSDT 300-second episodes so a declared time boundary can leave at least one training event, one crossing event excluded, and at least one held-out event.
• Every selected episode has its own Up and Down token books, causal Chainlink observations, trades, and official settlement; incomplete or late-only episodes are rejected.
• The current typed verifier accepts the cohort without weakening event, book-depth, causality, digest, completion, or settlement checks.
• Publish to a new no-clobber path and independently read back content SHA, manifest SHA, and _SUCCESS bytes.

Blocked by

#313 must first publish a fresh bounded current-schema multi-event market triplet. #310 is complete; #312 proved the old hour tape cannot be safely re-authenticated.

Out of scope

ResearchSnapshot construction; evaluator or MCTS execution; result publication; collector deployment or cutover; Binance data; verifier or research-logic changes; Paper, Shadow, or Live.

[proerror77]

Read-only ACK discovery selected the minimal source-closed hour-20 cohort and found one explicit dependency.

• Market source: 2026-07-23 hour 20, content SHA 468946c01ff45a61797ad941b7525f096475ebfed791c90bc11d5f2ef36adcd6, manifest SHA d533e7d6622dc11ca4d531652c04dced7ee9f1ff2cc1aa765b7539e30d443077.
• Reference source: 2026-07-23 hour 20, content SHA 6d3ed6b7f0360d8b4a9bb51a6a57140c05d8370981e4fd4dedb70ea4cff721a1, manifest SHA 4cc3d3780516ddda711404d75b6512ffbc1544996ce0e9078ac8810a92e90bad.
• Both sources are canonical, segment-complete, source-session-closed, and gap-free.
• Selected event-start window will be [2026-07-23T20:00:00Z, 2026-07-23T20:50:00Z), covering ten settled BTCUSDT 300-second episodes: 3044375, 3044415, 3044421, 3044439, 3044448, 3044469, 3044482, 3044532, 3044544, 3044564.
• The ordinary hour-20 reference manifest contains trades and settlements but an empty trade_completions map. Generate bounded trade-completion proofs for the hour20 BTC 5m cohort #310 owns the bounded completion-only acquisition. Compile a multi-event causally available BTC 5m Polymarket evidence cohort #308 remains paused until that immutable triplet is independently read back.

No collector service, verifier, snapshot, evaluator, ECS, Paper, or Live state was changed.

[proerror77]

Dependency #310 completed and independently read back the ten-market completion-only triplet. #308 resumes under /root as the sole ACK controller. Authorized scope is one immutable multi-event evidence compile and one independent read-only triplet verification; no collector service or research/evaluator logic changes.

[proerror77]

Exact compiler diagnosis: the original hour-20 market manifest lacks the current required quote_quality_complete attestation. All other observed market policy fields match, but missing proof must fail closed. #312 owns a byte-identical current-uploader re-authentication. #308 remains paused; no verifier relaxation or event-row filtering is authorized.

[proerror77]

#312 failed closed because the old tape omitted non-derivable per-request provenance. #313 is the replacement upstream acquisition: fresh current Rust recorder, 20-minute source rotation, 25-minute bound, at least three fully quoted BTC 5m events after startup filtering. #308 remains paused until independent readback.