fix(research): accept event-local evidence cohorts

[proerror77]

Change contract

Allow a verified Polymarket evidence set to contain non-overlapping time gaps when every member is internally complete; keep overlap and duplicate checks fail-closed.

Out of scope

Collector changes, snapshot compiler APIs, execution logic, and any new data acquisition.

Dependency or merge order

Layer 1 of 4. Merge before #canonical-event and reprice-pilot layers because policy identity includes this verifier source.

Focused validation

git diff --check; targeted set tests added for gap acceptance, overlap/duplicate rejection, and member-local missing-slot rejection. Local Rust compilation was intentionally not run; Linux CI is the build authority.

Rollout/rollback impact

Research-only evidence acceptance becomes less global but remains event-local fail-closed. Revert this PR to restore globally contiguous-set enforcement.

Summary by CodeRabbit

• Bug Fixes

  • Improved validation of Polymarket evidence across separate time ranges.
  • Evidence groups may now contain gaps between cohorts while still requiring complete, correctly aligned 5-minute data within each group.
  • Continued rejection of overlapping ranges, duplicate artifacts, and incomplete slots.

• Configuration

  • Updated research mission configuration snapshots for Bitcoin and Solana markets.

• Documentation

  • Updated migration guidance to reflect the revised evidence aggregation requirements.

[coderabbitai]

No actionable comments were generated in the recent review. 🎉

ℹ️ Recent review info

⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: defaults

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Pro

Run ID: 1df4c735-bdac-4637-8573-a79e3015417e

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between d5ae7f9 and 38d674a.

📒 Files selected for processing (4)

• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-btc-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-sol-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-market-data/src/polymarket_evidence/set.rs
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/tasks/todo.md

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📝 Walkthrough

Walkthrough

Polymarket evidence aggregation now validates complete 5-minute slots independently within each artifact, allowing gaps between non-overlapping members. Tests, mission policy snapshot identifiers, and the research checklist were updated accordingly.

Changes

Polymarket evidence validation

Layer / File(s)	Summary
Per-member slot validation and coverage tests rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-market-data/src/polymarket_evidence/set.rs	Aggregation validates each member’s aligned slot range independently, permits gaps between members, and rejects internal missing slots, overlaps, and duplicate artifact digests.
Mission policy updates rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/*, rust_hft/prediction-markets/tasks/todo.md	BTC and SOL mission snapshot identifiers and the research aggregation checklist reflect per-member slot completeness with gaps allowed between cohorts.

Estimated code review effort: 2 (Simple) | ~10 minutes

Possibly related PRs

• proerror77/monday#76: Updates the same Polymarket mission template snapshot identifiers.
• proerror77/monday#136: Introduces the related evidence aggregation validation behavior.

🚥 Pre-merge checks | ✅ 5

✅ Passed checks (5 passed)

Check name	Status	Explanation
Title check	✅ Passed	The title clearly summarizes the main change: accepting event-local evidence cohorts.
Description check	✅ Passed	The description covers the required sections with the main change, out of scope, merge order, validation, and rollout/rollback.
Docstring Coverage	✅ Passed	No functions found in the changed files to evaluate docstring coverage. Skipping docstring coverage check.
Linked Issues check	✅ Passed	Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.
Out of Scope Changes check	✅ Passed	Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.

✨ Finishing Touches

📝 Generate docstrings

• Create stacked PR
• Commit on current branch

🧪 Generate unit tests (beta)

• Create PR with unit tests
• Commit unit tests in branch codex/polymarket-evidence-set-gaps

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