fix: accept causal batched Polymarket completions

[proerror77]

Change contract

Accept causal Polymarket trade-completion retrievals that occur before a batched segment is recorded, while enforcing the fail-closed window segment UTC hour start <= retrieved_at <= end_recorded_at.

Out of scope

Collector/importer changes, evidence bytes, permission or digest checks, snapshot/cohort construction, evaluator/MCTS, Paper/Live, 15m/1h.

Dependency / merge order

Base: main. No stacked code dependency. This focused fix blocks cloud completion of #173 and therefore #169. Relates to #210; keep #210 open until the fresh ACK verifier proof passes.

Focused validation

• Red proof: seals_completion_retrieved_before_its_batched_segment_is_recorded failed under the prior lower bound.
• Boundary tests: same-hour causal batch accepted; before-hour backdating rejected; after-recorded-end future timestamp rejected.
• cargo test -p ploy-market-data — 48 passed.
• cargo fmt -p ploy-market-data -- --check — passed.
• cargo clippy -p ploy-market-data --all-targets --no-deps -- -D warnings — passed.
• Two independent read-only code reviews — no remaining findings.
• Full dependency clippy remains blocked by three pre-existing ploy-market-contracts derivable-impl warnings; this PR does not own them.

Rollout / rollback impact

Rollout publishes a new immutable research-runner image, then reruns the existing read-only ACK typed-verifier Job using exact evidence digests. Rollback is a one-commit revert; no data migration or collector change.

Why no PRD

This is a small, already-specified verifier defect with one temporal predicate and targeted counterexamples, so Matt TDD is the narrowest workflow.

Summary by CodeRabbit

• Bug Fixes
  • Improved validation of trade-completion timestamps in reference datasets.
  • Completions are now correctly accepted or rejected based on their position within the segment’s enclosing hour and end time.
  • Added coverage for edge cases involving segment recording times and hourly boundaries.

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Review details

⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: defaults

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Pro

Run ID: 825bc418-911a-40e6-8da3-7da8406e009c

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between 821576c and 42c7fcf.

📒 Files selected for processing (2)

• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-btc-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-sol-5m.example.json

📝 Walkthrough

Walkthrough

Reference segment validation now derives the segment hour start and uses it for trade-completion retrieval checks. Tests cover retrieval before recording, after recording, and before the enclosing hour.

Changes

Reference timestamp validation

Layer / File(s)	Summary
Derive and pass segment hour start rust_hft/.../polymarket_evidence/artifact.rs	validate_segment parses the RFC3339 hour start from the segment date and hour, then passes it to validate_trade_completions.
Enforce retrieval bounds and edge cases rust_hft/.../polymarket_evidence/artifact.rs	Completion validation compares retrieved_at with the enclosing hour start while retaining end-bound and completeness checks; tests cover retrieval timing boundaries.

Estimated code review effort: 2 (Simple) | ~10 minutes

Possibly related issues

• Issue 210 — Both changes update Polymarket trade-completion timestamp validation to allow retrieval before batched segment recording while preserving the segment end bound.

Possibly related PRs

• proerror77/monday#152 — Introduced related validate_trade_completions and trade-completion proof binding in the same module.
• proerror77/monday#154 — Validated ordered Polymarket reference segment sets used by this contract.
• proerror77/monday#175 — Adjusted Polymarket reference segment hour and time validation for same-hour data.

🚥 Pre-merge checks | ✅ 5

✅ Passed checks (5 passed)

Check name	Status	Explanation
Title check	✅ Passed	The title clearly matches the main change: allowing causal batched Polymarket completions.
Description check	✅ Passed	All major template sections are present, but the required Scope exception section is replaced by an off-template 'Why no PRD' note.
Docstring Coverage	✅ Passed	No functions found in the changed files to evaluate docstring coverage. Skipping docstring coverage check.
Linked Issues check	✅ Passed	Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.
Out of Scope Changes check	✅ Passed	Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.

✨ Finishing Touches

🧪 Generate unit tests (beta)

• Create PR with unit tests
• Commit unit tests in branch codex/polymarket-completion-causal-clock

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🧹 Nitpick comments (1)

rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-market-data/src/polymarket_evidence/artifact.rs (1)

1377-1436: 🎯 Functional Correctness | 🔵 Trivial | ⚡ Quick win

Add an explicit lower-bound equality test.

The new tests cover values below and above the bounds, but not retrieved_at == hour_start. Add that case to protect the required inclusive lower bound.

🤖 Prompt for AI Agents

Verify each finding against current code. Fix only still-valid issues, skip the
rest with a brief reason, keep changes minimal, and validate.

In
`@rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-market-data/src/polymarket_evidence/artifact.rs`
around lines 1377 - 1436, Add a test alongside
rejects_completion_retrieved_before_its_segment_hour that sets
trade_completions["market-1"].retrieved_at exactly to the segment hour start,
invokes seal_polymarket_evidence_triplet, and asserts successful sealing.
Preserve the existing below- and above-bound rejection tests.

🤖 Prompt for all review comments with AI agents

Verify each finding against current code. Fix only still-valid issues, skip the
rest with a brief reason, keep changes minimal, and validate.

Nitpick comments:
In
`@rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-market-data/src/polymarket_evidence/artifact.rs`:
- Around line 1377-1436: Add a test alongside
rejects_completion_retrieved_before_its_segment_hour that sets
trade_completions["market-1"].retrieved_at exactly to the segment hour start,
invokes seal_polymarket_evidence_triplet, and asserts successful sealing.
Preserve the existing below- and above-bound rejection tests.

---

ℹ️ Review info

⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: defaults

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Pro

Run ID: e1d637af-ee2f-4327-af84-a118fcdfce62

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between 8ba6d7a and 821576c.

📒 Files selected for processing (1)

• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-market-data/src/polymarket_evidence/artifact.rs