fix(market-data): accept ordered same-hour references

[proerror77]

Change contract

Allow validated Polymarket evidence to bind multiple chronologically ordered, non-overlapping immutable reference fragments from the same UTC hour, while preserving fail-closed rejection of reversed, overlapping, or skipped-hour sequences.

Out of scope

Collector/importer changes, evidence byte rewrites, #210/#211 timestamp rules, ResearchSnapshot/cohort construction, factor/label changes, evaluator/MCTS, Paper/Live, 15m/1h.

Dependency / merge order

Base: main@344a9bf39a4d2036ef12335af4671b8d12b290d7. No stacked code dependency. Relates to #212; keep #212 open until the fresh exact-main ACK verifier advances through this gate. This focused fix blocks cloud completion of #173 and therefore #169.

Focused validation

• Real red proof: ACK Job polymarket-evidence-typed-verify-173-0722x on exact-main image research-runner@sha256:6057938c3fdde14b3b7d9df467a8cd897b068b06ca96807c4b668c9fd2497cc9 rejects authenticated reference hours 10,11,11,11 with validated reference inputs must be consecutive UTC hours.
• TDD red: seals_ordered_same_hour_reference_fragments failed before the predicate change.
• Boundary tests: ordered same-hour accepted; reversed and overlapping same-hour rejected; adjacent-hour accepted; skipped-hour rejected.
• cargo test -p ploy-market-data — 50 passed.
• cargo fmt -p ploy-market-data -- --check — passed.
• cargo clippy -p ploy-market-data --all-targets --no-deps -- -D warnings — passed.
• Mission policy pin test — passed after mechanical BTC/SOL digest refresh.
• Matt two-axis code review — Standards: 0 hard findings; Spec: 0 findings.

Rollout / rollback impact

Rollout publishes a new immutable research-runner image, then reruns the existing read-only ACK verifier against the exact #173 evidence digests. Rollback is a one-commit revert; no data migration, raw rewrite, or collector change.

Why no PRD

This is a small, already-specified verifier defect with one sequence predicate and targeted counterexamples, so Matt TDD is the narrowest workflow.

Summary by CodeRabbit

• Bug Fixes

  • Improved evidence validation for same-hour data fragments.
  • Ordered, non-overlapping fragments can now be processed successfully, while reversed or overlapping fragments continue to be rejected.
  • Updated BTC and SOL research mission configurations to use refreshed search policy snapshots.

• Tests

  • Added coverage for valid ordered fragments and invalid reversed or overlapping sequences.

[chatgpt-codex-connector]

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[chatgpt-codex-connector]

Reject duplicate point-in-time reference fragments

When a valid same-hour segment has start_recorded_at == end_recorded_at, listing that segment twice makes the second start equal the first end, so this >= check accepts two identical fragments. This violates the non-overlap contract and can double-count or duplicate reference provenance; aggregate_reference_trade_completions will not catch it when the fragment has no completion entries. Reject repeated segment digests/identities, while still allowing distinct fragments that share a timestamp.

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[coderabbitai]

No actionable comments were generated in the recent review. 🎉

ℹ️ Recent review info

⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: defaults

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Pro

Run ID: e3ef412e-5015-4941-9a99-5ab5001ffbcd

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between 344a9bf and a5c5e12.

📒 Files selected for processing (3)

• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-btc-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-sol-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-market-data/src/polymarket_evidence/artifact.rs

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📝 Walkthrough

Walkthrough

The PR updates search policy snapshot identifiers for Polymarket BTC and SOL 5-minute missions and changes V2 reference-fragment validation to accept ordered, non-overlapping fragments within the same UTC hour, with tests covering accepted and rejected orderings.

Changes

Reference fragment validation

Layer / File(s)	Summary
Same-hour fragment ordering rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-market-data/src/polymarket_evidence/artifact.rs	ValidatedInputs::V2 accepts ordered same-hour fragments and rejects reversed or overlapping fragments, with unit tests for both cases.

Mission snapshot configuration

Layer / File(s)	Summary
Search policy snapshot references rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-{btc,sol}-5m.example.json	The BTC and SOL mission examples use updated SHA256 search_policy_snapshot_id values.

Estimated code review effort: 2 (Simple) | ~10 minutes

Possibly related issues

• proerror77/monday issue 212: Directly addresses acceptance and testing of ordered, non-overlapping same-hour Polymarket reference fragments.

Possibly related PRs

• proerror77/monday#154: Overlaps both the V2 reference-fragment validation changes and the Polymarket mission snapshot updates.
• proerror77/monday#175: Covers closely related same-hour Polymarket reference-fragment acceptance and validation behavior.
• proerror77/monday#137: Directly overlaps the BTC and SOL mission configuration snapshot updates.

🚥 Pre-merge checks | ✅ 4 | ❌ 1

❌ Failed checks (1 warning)

Check name	Status	Explanation	Resolution
Description check	⚠️ Warning	The description covers the main items, but it misses the template's required Scope exception section and should state 'None' for this small change.	Add a Scope exception section and set it to 'None'; the current 'Why no PRD' note can be moved there or removed.

✅ Passed checks (4 passed)

Check name	Status	Explanation
Title check	✅ Passed	The title is concise and accurately summarizes the main change: accepting ordered same-hour references.
Docstring Coverage	✅ Passed	No functions found in the changed files to evaluate docstring coverage. Skipping docstring coverage check.
Linked Issues check	✅ Passed	Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.
Out of Scope Changes check	✅ Passed	Check skipped because no linked issues were found for this pull request.

✨ Finishing Touches

📝 Generate docstrings

• Create stacked PR
• Commit on current branch

🧪 Generate unit tests (beta)

• Create PR with unit tests
• Commit unit tests in branch codex/polymarket-reference-fragment-order

Warning

There were issues while running some tools. Please review the errors and either fix the tool's configuration or disable the tool if it's a critical failure.

🔧 Checkov (3.3.8)

rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-btc-5m.example.json

Traceback (most recent call last):
File "/usr/local/bin/checkov", line 2, in
from checkov.main import Checkov
ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'checkov'

rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-sol-5m.example.json

Traceback (most recent call last):
File "/usr/local/bin/checkov", line 2, in
from checkov.main import Checkov
ModuleNotFoundError: No module named 'checkov'

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