fix(polymarket): admit complete event-local sparse references

rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_research_import.rs

@@ -726,8 +726,15 @@ fn validate_reference_policy(references: &[Value]) -> Result<()> {
     }
     Ok(())
 }
-pub(crate) fn with_validated_research_segments<T>(
+#[derive(Clone, Copy, PartialEq, Eq)]
+enum ReferenceHourPolicy {
+    Consecutive,
+    Nondecreasing,
+}
+
+fn with_validated_research_segments_policy<T>(
     config: &ResearchSegmentValidationConfig,
+    hour_policy: ReferenceHourPolicy,
     consume: impl FnOnce(&ResearchSegmentValidationReport, &Path, &Path) -> Result<T>,
 ) -> Result<T> {
     if config.references.is_empty() || config.references.len() > MAX_REFERENCE_SEGMENTS {
@@ -757,7 +764,10 @@ pub(crate) fn with_validated_research_segments<T>(
         if let Some(previous) = references.last() {
             let previous = segment_hour(&previous.identity)?;
             let current = segment_hour(&reference.identity)?;
-            if current < previous || current > previous + TimeDelta::hours(1) {
+            if current < previous
+                || (hour_policy == ReferenceHourPolicy::Consecutive
+                    && current > previous + TimeDelta::hours(1))
+            {
                 bail!("reference segments must be same or consecutive UTC hours");
             }
         }
@@ -830,6 +840,20 @@ pub(crate) fn with_validated_research_segments<T>(
     Ok(result)
 }
 
+pub(crate) fn with_validated_research_segments<T>(
+    config: &ResearchSegmentValidationConfig,
+    consume: impl FnOnce(&ResearchSegmentValidationReport, &Path, &Path) -> Result<T>,
+) -> Result<T> {
+    with_validated_research_segments_policy(config, ReferenceHourPolicy::Consecutive, consume)
+}
+
+pub(crate) fn with_event_local_validated_research_segments<T>(
+    config: &ResearchSegmentValidationConfig,
+    consume: impl FnOnce(&ResearchSegmentValidationReport, &Path, &Path) -> Result<T>,
+) -> Result<T> {
+    with_validated_research_segments_policy(config, ReferenceHourPolicy::Nondecreasing, consume)
+}
+
 pub fn validate_research_segments(
     config: &ResearchSegmentValidationConfig,
 ) -> Result<ResearchSegmentValidationReport> {
@@ -1299,7 +1323,7 @@ mod tests {
     }
 
     #[test]
-    fn merged_trade_union_matches_later_completion_proof() {
+    fn event_local_trade_union_allows_sparse_reference_hours() {
         let temp = tempfile::tempdir().unwrap();
         let root = fs::canonicalize(temp.path()).unwrap();
         let market = triplet(&root, "crypto_expiry", &market_rows());
@@ -1324,7 +1348,7 @@ mod tests {
             ),
         ];
         for record in &mut second {
-            record["recorded_at"] = json!("2026-07-17T05:02:00Z");
+            record["recorded_at"] = json!("2026-07-17T07:02:00Z");
         }
         let second = triplet(&root, "crypto_expiry_reference", &second);
         let config = crate::polymarket_research_normalize::PolymarketEvidenceConfig {
@@ -1337,6 +1361,11 @@ mod tests {
             market_ids: vec!["market-1".to_owned()],
         };
 
+        let error = crate::polymarket_research_select::select_research_contracts(&config)
+            .unwrap_err()
+            .to_string();
+        assert!(error.contains("same or consecutive UTC hours"));
+
         let normalized =
             crate::polymarket_research_normalize::normalize_polymarket_evidence(&config).unwrap();
         let trades = String::from_utf8(normalized.ndjson)
@@ -1360,7 +1389,7 @@ mod tests {
         );
         assert_eq!(
             trades[missing_trade["record_id"].as_str().unwrap()],
-            "2026-07-17T05:02:00Z"
+            "2026-07-17T07:02:00Z"
         );
     }
 

rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_research_normalize.rs

@@ -1,7 +1,8 @@
 use crate::polymarket_research_import::{ResearchSegmentValidationReport, TradeCompletionIdentity};
 use crate::polymarket_research_select::{
     decimal_text, json_strings, required, timestamp, utc_text, visit,
-    with_selected_research_contracts, ResearchSelectionConfig, SelectedContract, WINDOW_SECS,
+    with_event_local_selected_research_contracts, ResearchSelectionConfig, SelectedContract,
+    WINDOW_SECS,
 };
 use crate::polymarket_upload::{
     trade_record_ids_sha256, validate_canonical_trade, validate_market_settlement,
@@ -716,7 +717,7 @@ fn normalize_raw(
 pub fn normalize_polymarket_evidence(
     config: &PolymarketEvidenceConfig,
 ) -> Result<NormalizedPolymarketEvidence> {
-    with_selected_research_contracts(
+    with_event_local_selected_research_contracts(
         config,
         |inputs, market_path, reference_path, contracts, start, end| {
             normalize_raw(inputs, market_path, reference_path, contracts, start, end)

rust_hft/tools/collector/src/polymarket_research_select.rs

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 use crate::polymarket_research_import::{
-    with_validated_research_segments, ResearchSegmentValidationConfig,
-    ResearchSegmentValidationReport,
+    with_event_local_validated_research_segments, with_validated_research_segments,
+    ResearchSegmentValidationConfig, ResearchSegmentValidationReport,
 };
 use crate::polymarket_upload::validate_market_metadata;
 use anyhow::{anyhow, bail, Context, Result};
@@ -396,8 +396,9 @@ fn enrich_metadata(path: &Path, contracts: &mut BTreeMap<String, SelectedContrac
     Ok(())
 }
 
-pub(crate) fn with_selected_research_contracts<T>(
+fn with_selected_research_contracts_policy<T>(
     config: &ResearchSelectionConfig,
+    event_local: bool,
     consume: impl FnOnce(
         &ResearchSegmentValidationReport,
         &Path,
@@ -408,17 +409,37 @@ pub(crate) fn with_selected_research_contracts<T>(
     ) -> Result<T>,
 ) -> Result<T> {
     let (start, end, market_ids) = selection(config)?;
-    with_validated_research_segments(&config.segments, |inputs, market_path, reference_path| {
-        let mut contracts = discover(market_path, start, end, &market_ids)?;
-        enrich_metadata(reference_path, &mut contracts)?;
-        consume(inputs, market_path, reference_path, &contracts, start, end)
-    })
+    let selected =
+        |inputs: &ResearchSegmentValidationReport, market_path: &Path, reference_path: &Path| {
+            let mut contracts = discover(market_path, start, end, &market_ids)?;
+            enrich_metadata(reference_path, &mut contracts)?;
+            consume(inputs, market_path, reference_path, &contracts, start, end)
+        };
+    if event_local {
+        with_event_local_validated_research_segments(&config.segments, selected)
+    } else {
+        with_validated_research_segments(&config.segments, selected)
+    }
+}
+
+pub(crate) fn with_event_local_selected_research_contracts<T>(
+    config: &ResearchSelectionConfig,
+    consume: impl FnOnce(
+        &ResearchSegmentValidationReport,
+        &Path,
+        &Path,
+        &BTreeMap<String, SelectedContract>,
+        DateTime<Utc>,
+        DateTime<Utc>,
+    ) -> Result<T>,
+) -> Result<T> {
+    with_selected_research_contracts_policy(config, true, consume)
 }
 
 pub fn select_research_contracts(
     config: &ResearchSelectionConfig,
 ) -> Result<ResearchSelectionReport> {
-    with_selected_research_contracts(config, |inputs, _, _, contracts, start, end| {
+    with_selected_research_contracts_policy(config, false, |inputs, _, _, contracts, start, end| {
         let market_ids = contracts.keys().cloned().collect();
         let symbols = contracts
             .values()