feat(research): introduce typed Mission v3 contract

[proerror77]

Change contract

Add a versioned BTC x 300-second Mission v3 contract that parses and validates typed settlement, Up-execution, and Down-execution tasks, binds run mode, authority, authenticated cohort/snapshot/policy identities, and search budget into canonical Mission identity, and rejects mismatched admission or checkpoint identity before dispatch.

Out of scope

Cohort partition implementation (#322), authenticated snapshot materialization and raw-byte rehash (#320), evaluator calculations or MCTS adapters, collector/catalog changes, Job rendering, Paper, Shadow, Live, promotion, deployment, and profitability claims.

Dependency or merge order

Depends on #315, which is merged. No stacked PR dependency; merge independently before #322, #323, and #324 consume the Mission v3 seam.

Focused validation

• cargo test -p ploy-research prediction_mission_v3::tests --lib (9 passed)
• cargo test -p ploy-research --lib (297 passed)
• cargo clippy -p ploy-research --lib --no-deps -- -D warnings
• cargo fmt --package ploy-research -- --check
• git diff --check origin/main...HEAD
• Matt Standards review: 0 findings after fixes
• Matt Spec review: 0 findings after fixes

Rollout and rollback impact

Research contract only. No runtime, collector, cloud, or trading mutation. The new contract source is included in the fail-closed research policy fingerprint, so the checked-in v2 examples are repinned to the exact current policy without v2-to-v3 reinterpretation. Rollback is the single focused commit and restores the prior policy pins.

Closes #321

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Review details

⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: defaults

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Pro Plus

Run ID: 7d347d64-6b43-4e08-93c4-c9ddb681b088

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between 7533e5c and 914d8fc.

📒 Files selected for processing (7)

• docs/architecture/PREDICTION_MARKETS.md
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-btc-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-sol-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/src/lib.rs
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/src/prediction_loop.rs
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/src/prediction_mission_v3.rs
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/tasks/todo.md

✨ Finishing Touches

🧪 Generate unit tests (beta)

• Create PR with unit tests
• Commit unit tests in branch codex/mission-v3-321

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[chatgpt-codex-connector]

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[chatgpt-codex-connector]

Bind the authenticated handle to the run mode

When #320 constructs this handle from a minimal pipeline_smoke cohort, a caller can reuse it with the same authenticated digests but change the mission to research_trial and give it a nonzero search budget: the handle does not retain run_mode, and admission compares only the task, authority, capabilities, and input digests. Because research_trial has broader cohort and evaluator permissions than pipeline_smoke (docs/architecture/PREDICTION_MARKETS.md:122-127), a fresh admission with no checkpoint can incorrectly treat smoke-only evidence as trial-ready. Bind the authenticated handle to the run mode or exact Mission hash and verify it during admission.

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