feat(research): add no-alpha pipeline smoke receipt

[proerror77]

Change contract

Provide one fail-closed Mission v3 pipeline_smoke path: admission and immutable snapshot identity, one settlement-only mechanical evaluator report, immutable result publication/readback, typed local status evidence, and synchronized checked-in Mission policy digests.

Acceptance evidence

• cargo test -p alpha-harness --bin alpha-harness --locked -- --nocapture (110 passed)
• cargo test -p alpha-harness prediction_runner::tests -- --nocapture (17 passed; mismatched digest does not create a result)
• cargo clippy -p alpha-harness --all-targets -- -D warnings
• cargo test -p ploy-research --features db --bin monday-prediction-evaluator --bin monday-prediction-research -- --nocapture (19 passed)
• cargo test -p ploy-research --lib -- --nocapture (322 passed)
• git diff --check
• ploy-research strict Clippy remains blocked only by three pre-existing ploy-market-contracts manual-Default lints, outside this diff.

Out of scope

No collector deployment, no CEX lane, no LLM/MCTS/backprop/candidate frontier/held-out selection, and no Paper/Shadow/Live/promotion authority. #326 is not started.

Dependency / merge order

Base: merged #374 (f59d05ec). This is the next #323 contract and must merge before #326.

Scope exception

This is 9 files / 1,148 added lines. Darwin provided named code-review approval for the atomic exception: dispatch, runner, research, evaluator, immutable readback, status evidence, and policy-digest templates form one fail-closed receipt protocol; splitting would leave an incomplete protocol surface. Locke recorded a split preference but found no P0/P1 blocker.

Rollout / rollback

Research-only and disabled by default. Roll back by reverting this one commit; no runtime collector, execution, or promotion path changes.

[coderabbitai]

Warning

Review limit reached

@proerror77, you've reached your PR review limit, so we couldn't start this review.

Next review available in: 7 minutes

Enable usage-based reviews in Billing to review now. Otherwise, wait until the next included review is available.
You're only billed for reviews past your plan's rate limits ($0.25/file).

How can I continue?

After more reviews become available, a review can be triggered using the @coderabbitai review command as a PR comment. Alternatively, push new commits to this PR.

To avoid repeated limits, reduce automatic review volume by pausing incremental auto-reviews earlier, using label-based review opt-in, excluding WIP or generated PR titles, or requesting reviews manually when the PR is ready. If your team needs uninterrupted high-volume reviews, an organization admin can enable usage-based reviews.

How do review limits work?

CodeRabbit enforces per-developer PR review limits for each organization. Most developers receive the normal plan review availability.

For paid Pro and Pro+ PR reviews, CodeRabbit uses adaptive limits for sustained high-volume activity. When a developer's recent PR review activity reaches the 95th percentile or higher among CodeRabbit users, additional reviews become available more gradually as earlier reviews age out of the rolling window.

Please refer docs for additional details.

Review details

⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: defaults

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Pro Plus

Run ID: 14bafeec-4098-4199-8b57-adde40482520

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between f59d05e and b0f2331.

📒 Files selected for processing (9)

• docs/architecture/PREDICTION_MARKETS.md
• rust_hft/alpha-harness/app/src/cli.rs
• rust_hft/alpha-harness/app/src/prediction_dispatch.rs
• rust_hft/alpha-harness/app/src/prediction_runner.rs
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-btc-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-sol-5m.example.json
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/src/bin/monday-prediction-evaluator.rs
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/src/bin/monday-prediction-research.rs
• rust_hft/prediction-markets/tasks/todo.md

✨ Finishing Touches

🧪 Generate unit tests (beta)

• Create PR with unit tests
• Commit unit tests in branch codex/pipeline-smoke-323

---

Thanks for using CodeRabbit! It's free for OSS, and your support helps us grow. If you like it, consider giving us a shout-out.

❤️ Share

• X
• Mastodon
• Reddit
• LinkedIn

_{Comment @coderabbitai help to get the list of available commands.}

[chatgpt-codex-connector]

💡 Codex Review

Here are some automated review suggestions for this pull request.

Reviewed commit: a3decd65cd

ℹ️ About Codex in GitHub

Your team has set up Codex to review pull requests in this repo. Reviews are triggered when you

• Open a pull request for review
• Mark a draft as ready
• Comment "@codex review".

If Codex has suggestions, it will comment; otherwise it will react with 👍.

Codex can also answer questions or update the PR. Try commenting "@codex address that feedback".