fix(research): preserve checkpoint float identity

rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-btc-5m.example.json

@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@
   "horizon": "5m",
   "time_cohort_boundary_ms": 0,
   "prompt_snapshot_id": "sha256:2b55ba0e724dfc9f5a040911e397058a09c6229e42064e4998739d617b368dcb",
-  "search_policy_snapshot_id": "sha256:76d4afe04854587a2883f06cdcf8a67563853f320630eafb700ef794b5ef9c33",
+  "search_policy_snapshot_id": "sha256:7f7843c1345dce4c722e1ca1a93e99b134ae15197a77de8c38a99ba22eacc5a5",
   "search_budget": {
     "max_candidates": 6,
     "max_llm_calls": 2,

rust_hft/prediction-markets/config/research_missions/polymarket-sol-5m.example.json

@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@
   "horizon": "5m",
   "time_cohort_boundary_ms": 0,
   "prompt_snapshot_id": "sha256:0816ebccf4c75ee6bdcfe315b253c84ddf1808a38687ebe3b924b87bd72a52a9",
-  "search_policy_snapshot_id": "sha256:76d4afe04854587a2883f06cdcf8a67563853f320630eafb700ef794b5ef9c33",
+  "search_policy_snapshot_id": "sha256:7f7843c1345dce4c722e1ca1a93e99b134ae15197a77de8c38a99ba22eacc5a5",
   "search_budget": {
     "max_candidates": 6,
     "max_llm_calls": 2,

rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/Cargo.toml

@@ -32,7 +32,7 @@ ploy-strategy-bundles = { workspace = true, optional = true }
 ploy-trading = { workspace = true, optional = true }
 rust_decimal.workspace = true
 serde.workspace = true
-serde_json.workspace = true
+serde_json = { workspace = true, features = ["float_roundtrip"] }
 sha2.workspace = true
 sqlx = { workspace = true, optional = true }
 tokio = { workspace = true, features = ["rt-multi-thread", "macros"] }

rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/prediction-policy-dependencies.linux.sha256

@@ -1 +1 @@
-sha256:718c9dc75ac117ae58698c04f3a39c004a0da5c6755f55cc7b2a2652b58cc6ce
+sha256:3a34b6921bca1f258953c5c2690e3ecab4e13b9d0cf8956b9b0a71b07f9aff3a

rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/prediction-policy-dependencies.linux.txt

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ target=x86_64-unknown-linux-gnu
 profile=default,db
 input:Cargo.lock=sha256:c3346b8cd700b030d8f9a106ad7c3b6a8e776b8cdaf8d7aaa10f57b9d83b95ad
 input:Cargo.toml=sha256:fbcd5c33c246ade9700e461e9fd62c1f56f3af262ac67d8206a29b4d0bf626f9
-input:crates/ploy-research/Cargo.toml=sha256:0962c6b853e0929ab0fd0c009e03067d235526536559d279817dfa94ac6f4fe6
+input:crates/ploy-research/Cargo.toml=sha256:6ca7b4b9068c6eee63e2d766399b7d79b9b0d300391149eb43b0905c8adfa957
 input:crates/ploy-feed-loaders/Cargo.toml=sha256:abf8f1b8adec93b1ad84a66294cb58eb65f9cbca33c701cc81c7635eb9b35e2c
 input:crates/ploy-market-contracts/Cargo.toml=sha256:e086ddc8f162ff0abcabe832b1b61549f0daf7e98a78ab96f5512c596c3dc7f0
 input:crates/ploy-market-data/Cargo.toml=sha256:4f3c213c3d8283de4672b7c2de6f9c9c30d12db11bb8460495f5ebf09225b2bd
@@ -135,7 +135,7 @@ package:ryu@1.0.23|source=registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index|
 package:scopeguard@1.2.0|source=registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index|checksum=94143f37725109f92c262ed2cf5e59bce7498c01bcc1502d7b9afe439a4e9f49|features=
 package:serde@1.0.228|source=registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index|checksum=9a8e94ea7f378bd32cbbd37198a4a91436180c5bb472411e48b5ec2e2124ae9e|features=alloc,default,derive,rc,serde_derive,std
 package:serde_core@1.0.228|source=registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index|checksum=41d385c7d4ca58e59fc732af25c3983b67ac852c1a25000afe1175de458b67ad|features=alloc,rc,result,std
-package:serde_json@1.0.150|source=registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index|checksum=e8014e44b4736ed0538adeecded0fce2a272f22dc9578a7eb6b2d9993c74cfb9|features=arbitrary_precision,default,raw_value,std
+package:serde_json@1.0.150|source=registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index|checksum=e8014e44b4736ed0538adeecded0fce2a272f22dc9578a7eb6b2d9993c74cfb9|features=arbitrary_precision,default,float_roundtrip,raw_value,std
 package:serde_urlencoded@0.7.1|source=registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index|checksum=d3491c14715ca2294c4d6a88f15e84739788c1d030eed8c110436aafdaa2f3fd|features=
 package:sha1@0.10.7|source=registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index|checksum=a978451301f4db1d02937a4ab3ccce137717b81826e79b7d49ffe3244a13c3b8|features=default,std
 package:sha2@0.10.9|source=registry+https://github.com/rust-lang/crates.io-index|checksum=a7507d819769d01a365ab707794a4084392c824f54a7a6a7862f8c3d0892b283|features=default,std

rust_hft/prediction-markets/crates/ploy-research/src/prediction_mcts_run.rs

@@ -983,8 +983,8 @@ mod tests {
                         probability_blend_sha256: candidate.probability_blend_sha256.clone(),
                         training_cohort_id: "train-before-boundary".to_string(),
                         event_count: 12,
-                        mean_brier_score: 0.2,
-                        mean_log_loss: 0.3,
+                        mean_brier_score: 0.5492666666666667,
+                        mean_log_loss: 1.359634792578074,
                     },
                 ),
             })
@@ -1551,6 +1551,12 @@ mod tests {
 
     #[test]
     fn selection_evidence_binds_the_current_checkpoint_and_selected_candidate() {
+        let checkpoint_reward: f64 = -(0.5492666666666667 + 1.359634792578074);
+        assert_eq!(checkpoint_reward, -1.9089014592447406);
+        let roundtripped: f64 =
+            serde_json::from_slice(&serde_json::to_vec(&checkpoint_reward).unwrap()).unwrap();
+        assert_eq!(roundtripped.to_bits(), checkpoint_reward.to_bits());
+
         let output = temp_dir("selection-evidence-digests");
         let configured = mission(1, 1);
         let identity = PredictionMctsIdentity::from_mission(&configured).unwrap();